Great Expectations: the economic power of news about the future

Can shifts in beliefs about the future alter the macroeconomic present?  In a recent working paper we have studied how consumers, firms, financial markets and central banks adjust their expectations and modify their choices when given news of future technological progress. We were able to isolate these news from the signal in patents applications that was not already included in forecasts about the future of the economy contained in surveys compiled prior to the application filings. We find that news-induced changes in beliefs are powerful enough to enable economic expansions even if different economic agents process these types of signals in profoundly different ways. Collective actions prompted by a change in expectations about possible future technological progress can account for about 20% of the variation in current unemployment and aggregate consumption.